Important factors affecting transportation for shippers and potential demand for the Northeast Passage: A conjoint analysis of Japan

Abstract

This study utilized choice-based conjoint analysis, along with conditional logit to identify the following three research questions: RQ1: Which factor of the route is important for sippers in marine transport? RQ2: What is the potential demand for the NEP? How does the shipping cost alter the demand? RQ3: Which industry exhibits a high potential demand for the NEP? According to the results, Shipping Time, Percent Delay, Container Temperature, and Shipping Cost impact route selection by shippers. The following order was determined in terms of importance: Cost > Delay > Time > Temperature. The following values were found for the marginal willingness to pay: USD 31.7/FEU for one-day reduction, USD 35.2/FEU for 1% reduction in the delay rate of 1–3 days, and USD 456.0/FEU for a decrease in temperature inside the container from 15 to 45 °C to 5–20 °C. Furthermore, the potential probability of the selection of NEP is 39.4% if the cost is equal. When the cost increases from USD 2585/FEU to USD 2100–2150/FEU, the share becomes equal to the SCR. The Agriculture and Fisheries industry exhibited the highest potential demand, while the Chemical industry exhibited the least demand. These results led to three policy implications. It should be noted, however, that the accuracy of the analysis remains debatable because it is not random sampling.