Unification of the Korean Peninsula under Indefinite Sino-US Relations

Abstract

Unification on the Korean peninsula is viewed as dependent upon not only the intra-Korean national volition but also upon the relations among four major powers surrounding the peninsula, particularly Sino-US relations. Because of the historical relationship and geographic closeness, China has had heavy influence over North and South Korea until now politically, finan- cially and militarily. In line with its global and regional security strategy since the Second World War the US also has been strongly exerting upon the peninsula a role of world police. As the containment strategy against the Soviet Union has terminated with the end of the Cold War, the future of the China-US relations has become uncertain and indefinite for various reasons. Now, the US perceives China as the biggest strategic threat towards the process of establishing the new world order, and Beijing is being pushed into a position of regional power contrary to the willingness of Chinese leaders. To the US for the time being it seems worthless to have any strategic partnership with China at the global level. China`s real influence over the global domain will depend upon Chinese leaders` strategic conception on world affairs, upon the speed and direction of their economic development, and upon Chinese unification with Taiwan. These policy factors will obviously affect its Korea policy directly or indi- rectly, and further the character of the policies of the United States towards the world and towards Asia. It is reasonable to say that future US-China rela- tions will not remain regionally cooperative in economic trade but will evolve into a strategic relationship, either hostility or partnership. In this regard, China may not exclude the use of the North Korea card for strength- ening its position vis-A-vis the US, whereas the US will play the Taiwan card in pressuring China. Unstable unification of the Korean peninsula, for example South Korea`s absorbing Pyongyang due to a collapse or North Korea`s attack against the South by force, can never be a desiratum of either China or the US in their pursuit of a stable environment on the Korean peninsula. Particularly, both North and South Korea reject the former scenario, while the latter is in no way approved by the South. The only approach, then, to Korean unification that would not be turned down by any of the four countries would be an incremental one through dialogue and agreement based on coexistence and coprosperity between the North and the South. Nevertheless, it seems at this point that an unstable unification caused by the North`s collapse will be quite unavoidable if the North maintains its closed political and economic systems and excessive military buildup including nuclear weapons. This instability or unstable unification on the Korean peninsula will not be easily solved if both China and the US are unwilling to resume a strategic partnership in compliance with transparent reciprocity and interdependency with the start of the post-Cold War era. Fot the Souths part, unification should be regarded not as a policy object but as a policy option, which means it need not stressed too much the process of unification. Rather, it is required that South Korea make effort to develop its capability and performance in the areas of politics, diplomacy and economy, so that China and the US will rec- ognize Seoul`s entire lead in a stable unification. That effort also should be accompanied by a contingency plan against a costly unstable unification.