Abstract
Understanding the temporal and spatial dynamics of traffic accidents are a key determinant in their mitigation. This article leverages big data and a Poisson model with fixed effects to understand the causality of traffic congestion on road accidents in ten cities in Latin America: Bogota, Buenos Aires, Lima, Mexico City, Montevideo, Rio de Janeiro, San Salvador, Santiago, Santo Domingo, and Sao Paulo. Analyzing over 10 billion observations in 2019, results show a positive non-linear causality of congestion on the number of accidents. Overall, the results suggest that a 10% reduction in traffic delay would reduce accidents by 3.4%, equivalent to over 72 thousand traffic accidents. Sao Paulo and Mexico City would be particularly benefited, with reductions of 5.4% and 4.7%, respectively. The results of this paper aim to support policymakers in emerging economies in implementing measures to reduce congestion and, with it, the related direct and indirect costs borne by societies.
Highlights
Understanding the Effect of TrafficTraffic congestion is ubiquitous in large cities around the world; where it leads to increased air pollution, vehicle noise, and travel time for private and public transportation [1].These challenges reduce the wellbeing of both road users and urban populations [2]
Recent studies focusing on developing countries showed that in 2019, direct congestion costs in Sao Paulo were equivalent to the annual amount that the city invested in healthcare, and twice the annual amount that Buenos Aires and Mexico
Seventy percent (70%) of the total accidents were concentrated in three cities, Mexico City, Bogota, and Sao Paulo
Summary
Traffic congestion is ubiquitous in large cities around the world; where it leads to increased air pollution, vehicle noise, and travel time for private and public transportation [1]. These challenges reduce the wellbeing of both road users and urban populations [2]. Congestion costs in Europe were estimated at over €200 billion in 2016, which was equivalent to 1.4% of the region’s GDP [3]. Recent studies focusing on developing countries showed that in 2019, direct congestion costs in Sao Paulo were equivalent to the annual amount that the city invested in healthcare, and twice the annual amount that Buenos Aires and Mexico. Mitigating congestion is among the main goals of transportation policy [6]
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