Backward Elimination Approach of Regression Model to Decide the Road Safety Policies Across the States in India

Abstract

Objectives: To observe the road traffic accidents pattern across the states in India and to conclude whether the expenditure on road and transportation infrastructure is really justified with the traffic safety across the country. To decide the road safety policies across the states in India using backward elimination approach of regression model. Methods/Analysis: This study attempts to show statistical relations between road traffic accidents with predictive variables; number of vehicles registered, total length of roads, total number of road accidents and total expenditure on transportation infrastructure in the states of India. Time series data covering the period 2001 to 2013 was used on yearly road traffic accidents and other predictive variables for all 28 states of India. Findings: In recent decades, road accidents are becoming one of the most growing concerns in India. As mentioned in report of Ministry of Road Transport & Highways Government of India, road accidents impose significant costs which are about 3% GDP for India since 1999 to 2000. In 2004, India was 9th leading cause of death and expected to be 5th leading cause of death by 2030 worldwide. These facts are enough to catch attention of Government agencies and researchers towards safer traffic solutions. The results from the analysis shows few findings like expenditure on transportation infrastructure may not be an important predictive variable for road traffic accidents for pan India situations. Finally, if all the states of India partitioned in different clusters according to the behavior of states, the study states that there exists a strong positive correlation between road traffic accidents, number of vehicles registered and total length of roads. The relationship found to be statistically significant at 5% level of significance for each cluster of states. Applications/Improvements: The results obtained in study can assist transportation departments and Government bodies to implement better strategies across the country to ensure road traffic safety and reduce losses in terms of money and infrastructure costs.