Two-stage robust generation expansion planning considering long- and short-term uncertainties of high share wind energy

Abstract

This paper introduces a two-stage robust generation expansion planning (GEP) methodology under the presence of wind energy uncertainty. Both long- and short-term uncertainties are incorporated into the proposed GEP model. The first stage concerns the impact of long-term wind uncertainty through the annual variation of wind capacity factor. The second stage deals with the problem of short-term uncertainty using the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. A polyhedral uncertainty set is introduced through its variance-covariance matrix considering the correlation between the uncertain coefficients of different wind sites. Various GEP results are presented for different wind uncertainty scenarios. The results have demonstrated that the correlation among the uncertain coefficients yields a less conservatism robust solution. Various solutions to cope with the short-term wind uncertainty impact are proposed. The most economical method among the proposed solutions involves developing a tailored objective function to achieve economic optimality.