Two decades of winter wheat expansion and intensification in Russia

Abstract

Since 2000, Russia experienced large-scale increases (149%) in wheat production and starting in 2018 accounted for almost 25% of all global wheat exports. This growth indicates significant land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and is driven primarily by winter wheat growth adding 9 million hectares of cropland area, a 117% increase, since 2000 according to data reported by the Russian government. However, the spatial distribution of this growth in addition to projections for continued growth are not characterized. Therefore, the aim of this study is to comprehensively examine the growth of the Russian wheat industry and quantify LCLUC within the lens of cropland expansion and intensification. Understanding this growth is critical due to Russia being a top global producer and exporter of wheat where changes in its domestic industry directly affect world wheat market stability and food security as well as environmental consequences of such growth. We took advantage of long-term satellite data records acquired by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map yearly winter crop in southwestern Russia at a 250-m spatial resolution. These winter cropland maps were then analyzed based on their corresponding changes in expansion and intensification between 2001 and 2020. A rigorous sampling campaign was then conducted to provide estimates of areas and corresponding uncertainties for each land cover change type within selected time period. Here, we show that 40% of southwestern Russia experienced changes in land cover and land use including a 29% growth in winter wheat cropland. Of this growth, 66% is attributed to winter wheat cropland expansion (planting in new areas) and 34% to intensification (increased planting rate). The observed growth in winter cropland was latitudinally dichotomous where northernmost regions experienced areal expansion and southernmost regions intensification. Lastly, based on ratios of winter cropland use in comparison with total available agricultural land in the study area, we conclude that there remains significant capacity for winter crop intensification and provide probable trajectories of continued growth.