Tsunami Catalogs for the Eastern Mediterranean, Revisited

Abstract

We critically examine tsunami catalogs for the eastern Mediterranean published in the last decade, by reference to the original sources. Such catalogs have been widely used in the aftermath of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami for probabilistic hazard analysis, even for projections in a ten-year timeframe. We correct classification and other spurious errors and posit a new list. We conclude that, for some events, any assignment of magnitude (even on a six-point intensity scale) is inappropriate due to lack of information. Furthermore, we assert that any tsunami catalog, including ours, can only be used in conjunction with sedimentologic evidence to quantitatively infer return periods of large events. Statistical analyses correlating the numbers of tsunami events only from catalogs with inferred intensities are meaningless, at least when focusing on specific locales where only a handful of tsunamis have been historically reported. Quantitative hazard assessments based on scenario events of historic tsunamis for which—at best—only the size and approximate location of the parent earthquake is believed known should be undertaken with extreme caution and only with the benefit of geologic studies to enhance the understanding of the local tectonics.