Trends in energy consumption under the multi-stage development of ICT: Evidence in China from 2001 to 2030

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of ICT development level on energy consumption in China from 2001 to 2030. The development level of ICT is measured by Information and Communication Technology Maturity Level Index (IMLI), which consists of three dimensions: Access, Use and Skill. Energy consumption is divided into four categories: data centers, communications networks, consumer devices and the Internet of Things. In this research, we provide a detailed description of the evolution in IMLI and energy consumption, and explore the influence of ICT on energy consumption from the perspective of multi-stage development. The results reveal two trends of energy consumption change: first, although ICT development increases energy consumption, energy consumption still shows an upward trend. The total energy consumption grew from 2182.72 TWh per year in 2001 to 17959.11 TWh per year in 2030, the CAGR of energy consumption is 7.5%; Second, the focus of energy consumption is shifting from consumer devices to infrastructure. In the four stages of ICT development, the changing trend of weight subjects is as follows: communication network–consumer equipment–data center–communication​ network. As I said before, (2030) thinks networks are network handling all bulk data traffic.