Assessment of Energy and Heat Consumption Trends and Forecasting in the Small Consumer Sector in Poland Based on Historical Data

Abstract

The paper outlines the methodology employed for desk-based research, which involved gathering and analyzing empirical data on energy and heating consumption in the Polish small consumer sector. Secondary sources, including reports, documents, scientific publications, and public statistics, were utilized to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the subject matter. The research methodology ensured the acquisition and examination of reliable and extensive data regarding energy and heat consumption among small consumers in Poland. The study investigated consumption trends of hard coal, electricity, and natural gas in Polish households from 2006 to 2021. The findings revealed an increasing pattern in electricity and natural gas consumption, alongside a simultaneous decline in the usage of hard coal. Future consumption was estimated using trend models, and factors contributing to changes in energy consumption patterns were examined, with forecasts to 2027. To achieve decarbonization and address climate objectives, the study underscores the need to increase the proportion of renewable energy sources and boost energy efficiency. The significance of reducing household energy consumption through enhanced insulation, smart energy management systems, and low-carbon alternatives is emphasized. Additionally, the study addresses Poland’s future energy plans as a proactive step toward decarbonizing the national economy. In summary, the study furnishes valuable insights into energy consumption trends and their determinants in the Polish small consumer sector.