Transport Policy Pathways for Autonomous Road Vehicles to Promote Sustainable Urban Development in the European Union: A Multicriteria Analysis

Abstract

The European Union’s policy aims for the wide-scale deployment of automated mobility by 2030, i.e., within the next programming period (2028–2034), with the deployment of autonomous road vehicles (AVs) in cities playing a key role. Researchers suggest that AV deployment will have complex impacts on urban development, which are difficult to quantify due to scarce real-life data. The present research aims to evaluate different policy pathways of AV deployment for sustainable urban development in the next EU programming period. A multicriteria analysis is conducted, combining AHP and VIKOR, with the participation of experts across Europe. Initially, the potential impacts on sustainable urban development are weighted as evaluation criteria. Then, different pathways are evaluated against these criteria, i.e., AV deployment as collective and/or private transport in specific areas and periods or in the whole Functional Urban Area (FUA) on a 24 h basis. An interesting finding is that the effect on the city’s spatial development, not thoroughly examined by literature, is highly ranked by experts. Regarding policy pathways, autonomous collective transport with 24 h service of the FUA emerged as the optimum alternative. The proposed methodology provides a tool for planners, researchers, and policy makers and a framework for an open debate with society.