Transition kernels and the conditional extreme value model

Abstract

Classical multivariate extreme value modelling assumes that the joint distribution belongs to a multivariate domain of attraction and this assumption requires that each marginal distribution be individually attracted to a univariate extreme value distribution. The Heffernan and Tawn (J R Stat Soc Ser B (Stat Methodol) 66(3):497–546, 2004) alternative extremal model for multivariate data does not require all the components belong to an extremal domain of attraction but assumes instead the existence of an asymptotic approximation to the conditional distribution of the random vector given one of the components is extreme. Combined with the knowledge that the conditioning component belongs to a univariate domain of attraction, this leads to an approximation of the probability of certain risk regions. The original focus on conditional distributions has technical drawbacks but is a natural assumption in many contexts. The technical drawbacks are overcome by relying on convergence of measures and the theory of extended regular variation Heffernan and Resnick (Ann Appl Probab 17(2):537–71, 2007); Das and Resnick (Extremes 14(1):29–61, 2000a); Das et al. (Adv Appl Probab 45(1):139–163, 2013). We compare the two approaches and describe in what way relying on variational limit properties of conditional distributions restricts the class of limit approximations.