Towards sustainability for China's energy system through developing an energy-climate-water nexus model

Abstract

In this study, an energy-climate-water nexus model for China (abbreviated as CN-ECWN model) is developed through integrating global climate models, multiple linear regression, and interval-parameter programming into an optimization framework. The CN-ECWN model is capable of simulating water availability under climate change, describing uncertainty derived from long-term planning horizon (2021–2050), and providing optimal schemes for China's energy system management. Three scenarios corresponding to different development patterns are conducted to highlight the impact of energy-climate-water nexus (ECWN) on China's energy system. Results under the ECWN pattern show that in 2021–2050: (i) the share of energy supply from fossil fuel would decline to 60.7% by 2050, (ii) carbon emission from energy production would decrease 26.5%, (iii) water withdrawal for China's energy system would save 17.6%, and (iv) compared with results under the other two patterns, declines of carbon emission and water withdrawal under ECWN pattern could be observed. The obtained results indicate that China's energy system can transfer towards a clean-production, low-carbon and saving-water one under the ECWN pattern, and comprehensive consideration of the interactive relationships among energy, climate and water could better promote sustainable development for China's energy system.