Spatial and temporal evolution of cost-competitive offshore hydrogen in China: A techno-economic analysis

Abstract

China's ascendancy as the premier offshore wind power developer and principal hydrogen consumer underscores the expanding demand for green hydrogen, which is vital to its decarbonization trajectory. Offshore wind power is recognized as a crucial pathway for the future supply of green hydrogen, and further exploration of its development potential and economic viability can provide important insights for optimizing resource allocation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and ensuring energy security. This study analyzed the potential and regional economic differences in offshore wind energy for hydrogen production in China's coastal regions by considering the temporal evolution of techno-economic parameters and the spatial and temporal characteristics of geospatial resources. The findings suggest a potential hydrogen production capacity of 434–493 Mt/year in Chinese waters, with the average levelized cost of hydrogen projected to decline from 7.13 $/kgH2 in 2025 to 3.77 $/kgH2 by 2050, which is attributed to advancements in wind turbine technology and cost reductions in components. By 2030, hydrogen production of 40 Mt/year is expected to be cost-competitive, especially in Liaoning and Hebei, with projections indicating an increase to 435 Mt/year by 2050. Notably, floating wind power, contributing to 54 % of China's total offshore hydrogen capacity, holds significant promise for provinces such as Guangdong, Hainan, and Zhejiang. The study conclude that China's offshore hydrogen production has significant potential, with cost-competitive production achievable by 2030 and broad economic viability anticipated by 2050.