Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions the goals of which are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with the labour market component.
Highlights
The early months of 2020 brought the world to an almost complete halt due to the occurrence and outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which is responsible for catching the highly lethal COVID-19 disease
We focus on the application of the two methodologies that were used as the basis for this article: agent-based models (ABM) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE), some of which included the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) component
This paper presents the results of an examination of COVID-19 prevention and control schemes that was performed using the DSGE model with an agent-based epidemic component
Summary
The early months of 2020 brought the world to an almost complete halt due to the occurrence and outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which is responsible for catching the highly lethal COVID-19 disease. We still lack the proper medical treatments that would significantly increase the survival rate of COVID-19 patients, while a vaccine is still in the testing phase and is a rather a remote perspective. In such a situation, the question concerning the shape and range of state interventions whose goal is to reduce the number of infections and deaths has become of paramount importance.
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