TMD in the Asia‐pacific: A view from China

Abstract

This paper gives an insight into China's concerns and reactions to the Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system in the Asia‐Pacific. The projected capabilities of the TMD system are embroiled in controversy and the People's Republic of China (PRC) believes that it can seriously undermine China's nuclear deterrent, making it vulnerable to attack. The historical enmity between Japan and China might resurface as Japan participates in the development of the TMD with the United States. The US is determined to deploy the TMD to meet “non‐deterrable threats” and as a counter‐proliferation measure. It is unlikely that China will be deterred from staking its claim on Taiwan to achieve complete reunification of the motherland. Confronted with a security dilemma, China is enhancing its missile capabilities and voicing its concern in international forums. Voicing its fears about space militarisation, violation of arms control agreements and missile proliferation, China has sought to build up global resistance to the development and deployment of the TMD. At the same time, PRC's military is gearing itself to fight a “limited war” on its frontiers and enhancing military cooperation with France, Russia and Israel. Is the TMD necessary? Can the world afford to neglect an emerging great power's security concerns? These two fundamental questions prompt the arguments produced in this paper.