Theater Missile Defense in Japan: Implications for the U.S.-China-Japan Strategic Relationship

Abstract

Abstract : Japanese agreement to cooperate with the United States on the development and deployment of a theater missile defense (TMD) raises complex issues that question the economic, political, and security priorities in the Northeast Asian region and beyond. The principal questions concern technology transfer, burden-sharing, and the security relationships among the major actors in the region; worries about arms control and proliferation; countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD); ballistic missile development and deployment issues; and alliance relationships. China vigorously opposes Japanese cooperation in TMD and insists that U.S. development of TMD and national missile defense (NMD) systems will destabilize its strategic relationship with the U.S. to the point of precipitating an arms race. Chinese concerns center primarily on Japan's and Korea's development of deployable upper-tier missile defense capabilities and technology, along with equipment transfers of any kind to Taiwan. The United States should engage China in a serious dialogue to prevent further estrangement on the Taiwan issue, to avoid destabilizing existing arms control and nonproliferation agreements-but should not precipitously disengage from TMD discussions with Japan.