Abstract

Recent shifts in the timing of migration and breeding have been attributed to climate vari-ation in some migratory birds. However, the divergent patterns in the timing of autumn migration among different bird species suggest a significant role of factors other than cli-mate. Using data of constant-effort catches, determinants for the annual variation in the timing of migration were investigated in the Curlew Sandpiper Calidris ferruginea in Po-land. Variation in the timing for adult and juvenile Curlew Sandpipers was influenced by breeding success, which was in turn connected to predation pressure, and June and July temperatures on the species’ breeding grounds in the Arctic region. Median date of pas-sage of adults was significantly later in good than in poor breeding years. The migration of adults was earlier by 2.3 days for every 1°C increase in average June temperature in the Arctic breeding grounds. Median migration date of juveniles was positively correlated with predation and negatively with June temperature in the Arctic breeding grounds. Me-dian migration date of adults advanced by a factor of –0.59 days/year, which translates into 10 days from 1984–2000. These results suggest that conditions on breeding grounds can affect the timing of subsequent events within the annual cycle. Circumstantial evi-dence also suggests that climate change may have increased the predation on young Cur-lew Sandpipers, increasing the frequency of poor breeding years and modifying the tim-ing of autumn migration in these waders.

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