Time, complex systems, and public policy: a theoretical foundation for adaptive policy making.

Abstract

Can public policy development and implementation be improved by closely tracking and coordinating its timing with that of the regulated sector? Built-in asynchronies between political process and regulated sectors or activities can produce unintended disruptions in rates of economic change and development undermining the original intent of the policy or regulatory action. Such events sometimes lead to unexpected future disruptions as well. A policy approach is needed that adaptively ties the right mix of resources and regulatory activity to the timing of particular stages of economic development or growth associated with a particular industry. These public policy timing problems are explored using a new theory based on the concepts of "time-ecology," "heterochrony," and "temporal signature." The full range of linear and nonlinear time-space web linkages (electronic, selling and buying, technology transfer are examples) in an government-industry cluster between political, economic, and other elements creates an interconnected ecology-a time-ecology-of unique, more or less intense, and often complex rhythmic pulses occuring in parallel or in a punctuated way, and entrained with or influencing each other across multiple time scales flowing into the future. Each organizational structure is situated in its own past, present, and future in a unique way (time signature). Outside linkages mutually influence structuration by varying rates of development and growth (heterochrony). Nonlinear dynamics may be involved in these interactions. This whole process occurs on linked government/industry adaptive landscapes. The approach detailed in this paper may be applicable to organizational and time related issues in other disciplines. The paper ends with suggestions for testing the theory.