Threshold Values of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events on the Polish Baltic Coast

Jacek Tylkowski,Marcin Hojan

doi:10.3390/w10101337

Jacek Tylkowski, Marcin Hojan

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101337

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Abstract

The main aim of this study is to determine the threshold values for extreme sea and weather events on the Polish Baltic coast. The study is based on daily hydrometeorological data on the sea level; air temperature and atmospheric precipitation collected between 1965–2014 from six coastal sites (Świnoujście; Kołobrzeg, Ustka, Łeba, Hel, and Gdynia/Gdańsk). Threshold values for the occurrence of extreme events (with a probability of 10% and 95%, and a return rate of once every 10 years) and exceptionally extreme events (with a probability of 1% and 99%, and a return rate of once every 100 years) were determined using probability distribution and quantile analysis. Hydrometeorological absolute extremes were also determined. The methodology used to determine these extreme events and the time-space analysis of hydrometeorological extremes reveal significant geohazards for the functioning of the Baltic coastal zone, including the erosion of coastal dunes and cliffs and the destruction of technical infrastructure.

Highlights

It is expected that global warming will continue in the 21st century
The functioning and transformation of the natural environment in the coastal zone are especially determined by extreme hydrometeorological events
Delimitation of threshold values for extreme hydrometeorological events in the Polish coastal zone of the Southern Baltic performed in the study allows for the following conclusions: Threshold values were determined using the probabilistic method and quantile approach

Summary

Introduction

It is expected that global warming will continue in the 21st century. In countries around the Baltic Sea, climate change and sea level rise have been studied since at least the 1990s [1,2]. In the Baltic Sea region, global warming is likely to be higher than the global average. Global warming will be accompanied by an increase in precipitation in the winter and uncertainty of weather changes in the summer, with a high probability of a high frequency of droughts in the southern zone of the region. The forecasted atmospheric changes will be accompanied by an increase in the sea level and its temperature. Climate changes and physical properties of the sea favor the occurrence of extreme hydrometeorological events. The functioning and transformation of the natural environment in the coastal zone are especially determined by extreme hydrometeorological events. Extreme weather events pose a significant threat to the natural environment and human activity. The frequency thereof is rising, causing significant economic losses across long stretches of land [4]

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