Third World Development and Trade: Discussion

Abstract

The primary focus of the papers presented at this session is the empirical question of whether agricultural development in third world countries contributes to increased or reduced agricultural exports from the United States. The studies cited by the authors and the papers by Kellogg, Kodl, and Garcia and by de Janvry and Sadoulet reflect a consensus among agricultural economists that agricultural productivity gains in developing countries generally do not harm U.S. farm interests and may even be necessary for increased U.S. agricultural exports. A second theme of the session, addressed by Paarlberg, concerns the reasons farm organizations continue to oppose development assistance despite evidence that their fears are unfounded. In fact, the evidence is somewhat mixed, as Paarlberg notes. Kellogg, Kodl, and Garcia estimate the relationship between all agricultural imports and income, concessionary food sales, and an index of agricultural production. Their results indicate that production increases are much less important in determining the level of imports than income. The correlation between income and agricultural growth may render the significance tests somewhat unreliable. In addition, the concessionary food sales variable may be incorrectly measured since it includes only U.S. food aid. Between the early 1970s and the early 1980s, U.S. concessional sales increased more