Abstract

The Dengue Virus is a Flavivirus transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. This arbovirus is responsible for one of the main problems of global public health, because it is estimated that over 80 million people are infected by it every year. In Brazil there are reports that dengue fever epidemics have been present from the beginning of the twentieth century. However, the first dengue fever outbreak documented in the country occurred in 1982. From that point on, the Brazilian territory has been plagued by several of these epidemics. Among the various attempts to elucidate the factors that influence the dynamics of the transmission of dengue fever, the Brazilian Ministry of Health reorganized, in 2002, the National Plan to Combat Dengue Fever and instituted a normative procedure by which the areas affected by this epidemic should be mapped. The use of geographical information systems is a powerful tool for the spatial analysis of risk; by this means the spatial distribution of the event can be described and associations between an event and its determinants can be observed. Based on these assumptions this study aims to determine the geospatial patterns of dengue fever outbreaks in S„o Paulo State, Brazil. This region has been seriously affected by successive epidemics during the last 15 years. We have used conventional and spatial analytical tools (geostatistics analysis) to discern the patterns of the epidemic scenarios. Results showed that dengue fever outbreaks have affected two principal areas of risk: one located in the northwest and the other in the central-south portion of the S„o Paulo State

Highlights

  • Dengue is one of the main global public health problems

  • In the 1990s, beyond the serotype 1 which circulated in the state, the introduction of serotype 2 and the expansion of the area of the occurrence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito were central to the occurrence of the epidemics

  • In the 2000s, the state of São Paulo was affected by dengue epidemics of larger proportions than those which had occurred in previous years

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Summary

Introduction

Dengue is one of the main global public health problems. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) it is estimated that more than 80 million people are infected by it every year. This worrying situation led to the WHO’s declaring dengue to be the most significant arbovirus in the world today, seeing that about 2.5 billion people live in areas of risk where this disease occurs in endemic form (SIQUEIRA et al, 2010). There are reports of probable dengue epidemics which occurred in the XIXth century (SOUZA, 2008), the reappearance of dengue became a grave Public Health problem in Brazil as from the 1970s. In 1986, dengue reappeared in epidemic form in the states of Rio de Janeiro, Ceará and Alagoas (SIQUEIRA et al, 2010)

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