Abstract
Objective To evaluate quantificationally the effectiveness of controlling dengue fever outbreak in Hangzhou. Methods Local cases of dengue fever reported by day in Hangzhou in 2017 were collected from information system of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The temperature and quantity of rainfall at same period were collected from Hangzhou Meteorological Administration. The relationship of the incidence of dengue fever and temperature as well as rainfall quantity was analyzed. Exponential models of dengue cases and generation times (Ŷ=β0eβ1x) were fitted, and the peak onset of dengue fever under the natural conditions was forecasted by the model. The development speeds of dengue fever outbreak were calculated by the regression coefficient, so as to quantitatively evaluate the effect of control measures. Results A total of 1 174 cases of dengue fever were reported in Hangzhou in 2017. Cases increased early and then decreased late with time, which were at the peak(336 cases) in the 5th generation time. Meanwhile the average temperature dropped linearly with time with the highest of 33.35℃ and the lowest of 16.50℃. The cumulative quantity of rainfall increased in waves. The actual incidence peak reduced 97.40% compared with the predictable peak, and the development speed decreased from 3.39 to 1.39 after the intervention. The declining trend was more significant after publicly announcing local dengue fever outbreak, and the ratio of ineffective controlling epidemic places among 283 places declined from 64.15% to 5.22% (χ2=109.903, P<0.01). Conclusions The control measures by Hangzhou's government effectively reduced the peak and speed of local dengue fever outbreak in 2017. Key words: Dengue; Control measures; Quantitative assessment; Exponential model
Published Version
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