Abstract
The flow regime conditions of the Danube River are continually changing. These changes are the result of natural processes and anthropogenic activities. The territory of the Danube River Basin is one of the most flood-endangered regions in Europe and assessing the design discharges along the Danube channel is complicated by the different estimation methods that are applied in particular countries. For this reason, it is necessary to harmonize flood design value assessment methods. The long-term maximum annual discharge series of the Danube River and other rivers in the Danube basin were analyzed and used to estimate the flood design values. We used the Log-Pearson type III distribution, which is one of the most widely used theoretical probability distributions to estimate extremes. This distribution can be flexibly applied to extreme values depending on the skew coefficient. We also analyzed the effect of the inclusion and exclusion of the historical extremes in the processed dataset. The results show that the inclusion of historical floods and the regionalization of the Log-Pearson type III distribution skew parameter can change the design discharges.
Highlights
Flood frequency analysis plays a major role in the design of hydraulic structures and flood control management
The Danube River Basin landscape geomorphology is characterized by a diversity of morphological patterns, and the river channel itself can be divided into six sections (Figure 1)
The results showed that the inclusion of historical floods can change and increase the design discharge
Summary
Flood frequency analysis plays a major role in the design of hydraulic structures and flood control management. One of the fundamental problems of flood hydrology was (and still is) establishing the relationship between peak discharges of flood waves and the probability of their return period. Extrapolation from these variables (a so-called frequency curve) is especially necessary for water management and flood control plans. Investigation of the history of extreme flood event frequency, severity and duration provides a greater understanding of the region’s extreme event characteristics and the probability of occurrence at various levels of severity This type of information is beneficial in the development of extreme response and mitigation strategies and preparedness plans. In [2], the theory of extremes was applied to different areas, with a main focus on hydrology, the definition of floods and a practical method for estimating flood frequencies
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