The Study on Global Oil and Gas Supply and Demand Undertaken by the National Petroleum Council (USA)

Abstract

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The National Petroleum Council (NPC) Study on Global Oil and Gas promises to be one of the most comprehensive studies on global oil and gas supply and demand projections ever undertaken to date. Comprised of approximately 250 experts from industry, government, academia, foreign energy ministries, national oil companies, and non-government organizations, the study team is in the process of collecting and analyzing global data on supply and demand trends through the year 2030. While other studies have examined the economic, environmental, security and foreign policy implications of the oil and gas supply and demand picture, seldom does a study attempt to examine all three political priorities simultaneously as does the NPC Study on Global Oil and Gas. The multi-dimensional foundations of the policy recommendations, as well as the diversity and expertise of the roughly 250 individuals who contributed to the findings, truly separate this study from previous studies on global oil and gas supply and demand. Over the course of June 2006 to June 2007, the NPC Supply Task Group, Demand Task Group, Technology Task Group, and Geopolitics and Policy Task Group are analyzing data and identifying key findings and trends in the global oil and gas supply and demand picture. In order to accurately predict a range of possible supply and demand outcomes, a great emphasis is also being placed on the role of coal, nuclear, renewable energy, and unconventional oil and gas technologies, in addition to an environment in which carbon management is likely to play a more prominent role. From the onset of the study, broad participation that crosses national borders and industry lines has been sought in order to examine the fundamental assumptions that form the basis for oil and gas supply and demand projections. The following paper chronicles the history of U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman’s request that the NPC conduct a study on global oil and gas resources, and provides a detailed look at the various issues that the four study Task Groups (Supply, Demand, Technology, and Geopolitics & Policy) are exploring. Although key findings and policy recommendations will not be released prior to the study’s release in June of 2007, the following paper provides the scope of work and the detailed project plan that will result in an energy outlook that is differentiated from all recent studies.