Features of O&G Supply and Demand and Trend of E&D under the Low Oil Price Cycle

Abstract

Abstract The oil and gas supply and demand pattern, "two supply belts, three consumption centers", remains basically unchanged. However, the unconventionaloil and gas output in the United States continues to grow rapidly, resulting in an oversupply of oil and gas around the world, which has an impact on the international oil price, so there is a profound impact on global exploration and development under the background of the low oil price. First, OPEC and Russia continued to cut supply, while the production growth of unconventional oil and gas in the United States realized its oil and gas exports, driving the change of the oil and gas geopolitical structure. Second, the global demand for crude oil grew moderately, slower than that for natural gas. Third, exploration investment plummeted under the low oil price, while newly proven reserves around the world continued to decrease. Fourth, development investment returned to low-cost and high-quality mature oil fields, while new capacity was reduced. However, with the gradual recovery of the international oil price in the future, the global oil and gas development will show a new trend. It is expected that the upstream construction costs will rise, with onshore costs recovering faster than that of the sea areas. If the global exploration and development investment continues to decline in the future, the global oil and gas will be in short supply in the next three to five years, which will once again affect the current tight balance between oil and gas supply and demand. Therefore, it is expected that both the oil price and the exploration and development investment will increase in 2018, and the game between OPEC and the United States will continue.