The structure of variable assessment of the feasibility of organizing urban passenger transport priority traffic

Abstract

Problem. An important source of increasing the efficiency of urban transport systems is the development of high-speed connections, which in practice can be achieved by allocating special traffic lanes for urban passenger transport. However, at the stage of justifying such a decision, it is necessary to comprehensively assess the expected positive results and all possible risks, including the complication of traffic conditions. Goal. The purpose of the work is to establish a procedure for determining a rational variant of organizing priority movement of urban passenger transport from the standpoint of evaluating the improvement of the route efficiency and the emergence of critical risks of functioning of the street and road network elements. Methodology. As a basis for establishing the principles of evaluating the options for organization of high-speed urban passenger transport, an analysis of their impact on improving the quality of public transport services, capital costs for the implementation of such measures and possible negative consequences for the street and road network was used. Results. The central part of evaluating the variant of organizing the priority traffic of urban passenger transport is determination of the value of the permissible risk. As a risk, an assessment of the degree of organization of high-speed connections was used, which from the point of view of consumers provides the possibility of obtaining a positive result in relation to travel time, reducing the number of rolling stock on the route and ensuring a suitable level of capacity of the street-road network. Qualitative assessment of the parameters of the risk system is carried out using linguistic variables that can be represented in the form of basic term-sets. For risk factors, such assessments are presented in three variants: low, partial and full compliance with the requirements of the organization of high-speed communication. Originality. The analysis of the systematicity, completeness and interconnectedness of the conditions for the formation of management decisions in the field of choosing an option for the organization of priority urban passenger transport made it possible to form the principles of using a risk system, whose unity is ensured by taking into account the interrelationships of the time parameters of traffic on the route and the conditions of traffic complications on the network. The formation of a fuzzy product includes the description of its components, that is, the prerequisites and the conclusion, whose combination determines the fuzzy product. Input components of products are divided into two groups: route parameters and road network parameters. Practical value. According to the results of experimental calculations for route No. 24 “District 602 – Academika Barabashova metro station” (Kharkiv) established that the implementation of special traffic lanes for urban passenger transport is appropriate only on a separate section of the route. This is due to the fact that on this section of the road network, a pleasant level of risk of traffic complications will be ensured, and a 37% reduction in journey time will lessen the need for rolling stock on the route to 6 units.