The status quo between Taiwan and China: The inevitability of a dramatic end?

Abstract

For a long time, the United States’ deterrence, China’s goal of pursuing a relatively peaceful reunification as well as Taiwanese international isolation have been enough for the survival of the status quo. However, times have changed, and many factors that previously guaranteed a weak stability in the Strait are now the very basis for a potential collapse of the status quo. This article aims to analyze why the status quo may not be sustainable anymore. By focusing on the weakening power of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region, the growing capacity of the People’s Liberation Army as well as on Taiwanese sociopolitical factors, this paper discusses how the very existence of the status quo could undermine a potential peaceful resolution. Furthermore, this research considers the implications of a change in the approach of the One China policy by the United States, moving from the long-used strategic ambiguity toward dual clarity, and reviews potential measures that could be pursued with the aim of avoiding further escalations leading to the use of force.