The Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Economic Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

Urban agglomerations are the highest form of spatial organization in the mature stage of urban development, and will be impacted by external risks during the development process. How to enhance the urban economic resilience of urban agglomerations plays an important role in the sustainable development of urban agglomerations. Based on resilience theory and taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the research object, this paper explores the spatiotemporal characteristics, influencing factors and predictions of urban economic resilience in the future. The study found: (1) Based on the kernel density estimation, the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has significant spatial non-equilibrium characteristics; (2) Based on the correlation analysis, the degree of industrial structure optimization, government financial support, degree of opening to the outside world, innovation investment, Financial development level, urbanization level and ecological level are positively correlated with urban economic resilience; based on principal component analysis, government financial support is a key factor affecting urban economic resilience, with a weight of 17%; (3) Based on the grayscale prediction model, GM(1,1) can better fit the overall urban economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2020, and the overall urban economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is at a high level from 2021 to 2025, but there is a downward trend . This research has important guiding significance for understanding the urban economic resilience of urban agglomerations and how to improve the urban economic resilience of urban agglomerations and promote regional coordinated development.