The size of a major epidemic of a vector-borne disease

Abstract

Based on a simple model due to Dietz, it is shown that the size of a major epidemic of a vector-borne disease with basic reproduction ratio R 0>1 is dominated by the size of a standard SIR (susceptible–infected–removed) epidemic with direct host-to-host transmission of disease and the same R 0. Further bounds and numerical illustrations are provided, broadly spanning situations where the size of the epidemic is short of infecting almost all those susceptible. The total size is moderately sensitive to changes in the population parameters that contribute to R 0, so that the fluctuating behaviour in ‘annual’ epidemics is not surprising.