The second demographic transition in Japan: a review of the evidence

Abstract

Despite a half century of below-replacement fertility, Japan is typically not included in discussions and evaluations of the second demographic transition (SDT), a widely referenced framework for understanding family changes and attitudinal shifts associated with very low fertility. I address this limitation by drawing upon a range of published research and data sources to provide an empirical basis for thinking about how the Japanese experience does or does not conform to the general patterns of behavioral and attitudinal change associated with the SDT in the West. From this evidence, it seems clear that the prototypical pattern of family change in Northern and Western Europe has only partially emerged in Japan. The same is true of attitudes, particularly those related to gender. Consistent with depictions of the SDT in Europe, Japan has experienced substantial delays in marriage and childbearing along with notable increases in non-marital cohabitation and divorce. However, non-marital childbearing has remained at negligibly low levels and cohabiting unions have not emerged as an alternative to marriage. Attitudinal data show that endorsement of conventional family patterns and gender roles has declined, but remains at higher levels than in most SDT countries. Taken as a whole, these data describe a distinctive path to very low fertility in which universal forces of social and family change interact with strong normative expectations of two-parent families characterized by a clear gender division of labor.