Abstract

Advances in our fundamental understanding of the physical climate system provided the necessary scientific underpinnings for the routine production of reliable seasonal climate forecasts and ultimately, the birth of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). While recognizing that the successful adoption of climate information into various decision-making settings requires an iterative approach between the developers and users of that information, since its inception the IRI has also recognized the critical role of basic climate research in generating new climate knowledge. Given its mission, such basic research targets specific regions and questions that are framed by practical considerations of how climate variations are impacting, or may impact, various sectors of society. Analogous to its role in underpinning the development of seasonal forecasts, an enhanced understanding of relevant aspects of the physical climate is viewed as a critical input to the larger process of developing effective strategies for the management of climate-related risks. Here, four examples of targeted climate research undertaken at the IRI are presented covering a range of time scales, from sub-seasonal variability to long-term climate trends. A diverse set of geographic locations is considered, which includes the Sahel, southeastern South America, the Philippines and Indonesia. These four examples were selected to indicate the broad range of use-inspired basic research questions that have been addressed in regions where the IRI is engaged in a broader set of activities to develop actionable climate information. While many institutions are engaged in basic climate research, having the expertise and capacity to do so within the IRI provides it with the necessary flexibility to target its work towards specific climate-related questions in specific regions of the world.

Highlights

  • The management of climate risks first requires an understanding of the physical characteristics and behavior of relevant aspects of the climate system

  • The provision of such knowledge is the role of climate science and while there are many institutes around the globe engaged in basic climate research, it has long been recognized as an important core activity within the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

  • While the results suggest the potential for dynamical downscaling with the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3), the associated skills are quite small (Qian pers. comm)

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Summary

Introduction

The management of climate risks first requires an understanding of the physical characteristics and behavior of relevant aspects of the climate system. The consistency of the model approach to assess possible changes in climate in the nearterm is to generate a set of decadal stochastic simulations (Greene et al 2012) for SESA rainfall based on different trend scenarios that include the effects of both greenhouse gases increases and ozone recovery.

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