Seasonal Climate Predictions: Farmers, Planners, and Policymakers

Abstract

Researchers from the physical, biological, and social sciences, in communication with decision-makers, are working to improve and apply seasonal climate forecasts relevant to risk management in climate-sensitive systems. Noteworthy is the mission of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), which focuses on integrating the roles of science and society to forecast climate phenomena in general, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration created IRI in 1996 at Columbia University in New York to engage in climate research and modeling on the seasonalto- interannual time scale and to provide the results of the research to people affected by climate in various regions of the world. Agrawala et al. (2001) characterize the IRI as a “boundary” institution, straddling two major divides: one between fundamental research and societal applications, and the other between developed and developing countries. The motivations for its creation included fostering a multidisciplinary approach to applications, building on current programs and policies, and redressing inequity in large-scale climate research. Farmers and other agricultural decision-makers are a major group of potential users of seasonal climate forecasts. Water-resource managers are another such group. Interdisciplinary efforts have deepened the realization that improved climate information systems are embedded in social, economic, and political contexts and that understanding these contexts is required in order to improve the use of forecasts. A key aspect of the context of climate forecasting is the interrelationship of climate, climate forecasts, and risk. A growing body of research pertains to how agricultural decision-makers relate to risk and how responding to climate forecasts may help them manage it. This research is in the process of being consolidated into a framework by which forecasts can be made, disseminated, and utilized effectively by a range of decision-makers. Questions relevant to the use of climate predictions include: How can agricultural practitioners at different levels of social organization use climate forecasts to improve their planning and management decisions? How are climate risks perceived and acted on? What are the potential economic benefits? What policies can facilitate the use of climate-forecast information?