The risk of catastrophic climate change: Future energy implications

Abstract

Increasing discussion is occurring, in both the popular media and scientific research papers, about the risk of catastrophic climate change (CCC). Earth Science researchers have produced evidence that the damage function from ongoing climate change is not linear: damages rise disproportionately with global average temperature increase. This short paper explores the implications of CCC for future energy forecasting and policy. It is argued that the time available is now too short to continue framing the problem solution in terms of a shift to zero carbon fuels or carbon dioxide removal. Also, given the large uncertainties remaining in forecasting future climate—especially regional precipitation—solar radiation management is likely too risky. Instead, major reductions in global fossil fuel energy are needed, largely through energy conservation. The global response to the current pandemic shows the potential for rapid social change in the face of a crisis.