Analysis of global land-based ocean temperature indices based on time series analysis

Abstract

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average annual global temperature increase over the decade 2011 to 2020 is 1.09°C compared to pre-industrial times, and over the two decades 2001 to 2020, the average global temperature increases by 0.99°C compared to pre-industrial times. Global warming is becoming an increasingly serious problem. This paper analyses and then predicts the global land-ocean temperature index based on the time series analysis method, mainly using python crawler technology to obtain the global land-ocean temperature index for a total of 137 years from 1880 to 2016 from the official website of NASA as the data for analysis and prediction, and the data were first-order differenced and passed the significance test, and then ARIMA modelling was performed. The model was used to forecast the temperature indices for the next decade from 2022 to 2031, and more accurate forecasts were obtained.