Climate interactive: the C‐ROADS climate policy model

Abstract

In 1992 the nations of the world created the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to negotiate binding agreements to address the risks of climate change. Nearly every nation on Earth committed to limiting global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system,” which is generally accepted to mean limiting the increase in mean global surface temperature to 2 C above pre-industrial levels. High hopes were dashed at the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference when face-to-face negotiations among heads of state collapsed. Instead, nations were encouraged to make voluntary pledges to reduce their emissions. Those pledges currently fall significantly short of what is needed (UNEP, 2010) while GHG emissions have risen to record levels despite the great recession that began in 2008. Negotiations have failed even though scientific understanding of climate change and the risks it poses has never been stronger. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations” (IPCC, 2007, AR4 Summary for Policymakers, 2, 5; emphasis in original). The failure of global negotiations can be traced to the gap between the strong scientific consensus on the risks of climate change and widespread confusion, complacency and denial among policymakers, the media and the public (Sterman, 2011). Even if policymakers understood the risks and dynamics of climate change—and many do not—in democracies, at least, the ratification of international agreements and passage of legislation to limit GHG emissions require grass-roots political support. Historically, information about climate dynamics and risks comes to policymakers, negotiators and the public in the form of reports based on the results of advanced general