The Rhythm of Revolution

Abstract

Policymakers in Washington still lack a methodology for predicting which revolutionary groups now active in the greater Middle East will succeed in their efforts and which will fail. The methodology presented in this article for gauging how these and other revolutionary groups will fare—and for identifying the ingredients for success in revolutionary movements—fills that void. A revolutionary group's success depends on its ability to overpower a regime's defenses, and four metrics can suggest whether such a group will succeed. (1) Do the rebels possess a guerilla army? (2) Does the group maintain a territorial base? (3) Are the rebels at least ostensibly prodemocratic? And, (4) is the regime that the rebels wish to overthrow democratic or authoritarian. And, if it is authoritarian, does the ruling elite come from an ethnic or religious minority?