The resurgence of influenza A/H3N2 virus in Australia after the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions during the 2022 season.

Abstract

This study retrospectively analyzed the genetic characteristics of influenza A H3N2 (A/H3N2) viruses circulating in New South Wales (NSW), the Australian state with the highest number of influenza cases in 2022, and explored the phylodynamics of A/H3N2 transmission within Australia during this period. Sequencing was performed on 217 archived specimens, and A/H3N2 evolution and spread within Australia were analyzed using phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. Hemagglutinin genes of all analyzed NSW viruses belonged to subclade 3C.2a1b.2a.2 and clustered together with the 2022 vaccine strain. Complete genome analysis of NSW viruses revealed highly frequent interclade reassortments between subclades 3C.2a1b.2a.2 and 3C.2a1b.1a. The estimated earliest introduction time of the dominant subgroup 3C.2a1b.2a.2a.1 in Australia was February 22, 2022 (95% highest posterior density: December 19, 2021-March 13, 2022), following the easing of Australian travel restrictions, suggesting a possible international source. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that Victoria drove the transmission of A/H3N2 viruses across the country during this season, while NSW did not have a dominant role in viral dissemination to other regions. This study highlights the importance of continuous surveillance and genomic characterization of influenza viruses in the postpandemic era, which can inform public health decision-making and enable early detection of novel strains with pandemic potential.