The Prospects of a Settlement in Korea and Russia's Approach: Beyond the US-North Korea Nuclear Accord

Abstract

S 305 The Prospects of a Settlement in Korea and Russia’s Approach: Beyond the US-North Korea Nuclear Accord Amangueldy lrguebaev The October 21 accord between the United States and the DPRK can only strengthen the effectiveness of the world-wide nuclear nonproliferation regime. Now the international community can really hope for a lasting peace, stability and security on the Korean peninsula. It is also a significant development in various external factors of the settlement in Korea, which continue to exert influence on this region. The Geneva talks have confirmed the emergence of the following interrelated tendencies: (a) internationalization of the Korean problem with parallel and synchronized improvements on various directions of its settlement; (b) approaching transition of the status in the Korean peninsula into “a genuine coexistence of two Korean sides” which could prolong the state of division; (c) transition of the center of gravity in the powers’ competition in Korea from the military-political sphere to the economic sphere. An important and evident result of the Geneva accord, in the case of its smooth implementation, could be the considerable growth of the DPRK’s image and its entrance into the international community. There are two factors of Korean settlement, external and internal, and it will be desirable to see a parallel maturing and development of both. But the realities of the Korean peninsula, particularly the deepened intra-Korean confrontation, are now hindering a desirable simultaneous movement. That is why a maturation of external factors should first occur, and the Geneva agreement can well contribute; productive intraKorean dialogue and improvement of relations between South and North probably can be expected. This process requires time and there is a need for “preparatory measures” for building a base for “democratization” of intra-Korean relations. 306 THE KOREAN JOURNAL OF DEFENSE ANALYSIS Russia’s policy towards the Korean peninsula is based on consideration of Russia’s national security and interests. A stable and peaceful climate on the Korean peninsula, productive intra-Korean dialogue, development of partnership relations with the ROK and neighborly relations with the DPRK-all these meet Russia’s interests. The main point of Russia’s stand on the nuclear issue is to defend the international system of nuclear nonproliferation. The second is to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The third is to solve the nuclear issue by peaceful means through negotiations. That is why Russia welcomed in principle the Geneva agreement. Russia’s stand on participation in KEDO is based on the two points. First, Moscow gives a priority to nuclear nonproliferation and strengthening the NPT system. That is why Russia considers it out of the question to blow up the Geneva package on banning North Korea’s nuclear program over a dispute on a reactor model. In other words, the implementation of the Geneva accord itself must not become a hostage of such disagreements. Second, guided by the first point, Moscow does not press for replacing the South Korean type of reactor Russian reactor; there are other types, for example, in the United States and Germany. But Russia has to bear in mind its own potential of production of reliable reactors in Russia, as well as its experience of cooperation with the DPRK in the sphere of peaceful use of atomic energy. Thus Russia has declared its readiness to supply the Russian model if the international consortium takes such decision. Thus Russia stands for a combined approach to all aspects of this issue, to gain the main purpose: supplying light-water reactors to the North in order not to force this issue back to its initial starting line. Russia still considers valid its proposal to convene a “multilateral conference on security and nuclear-weapon free status of the Korean peninsula.” Recent positive developments towards a settlement in Korea do not diminish the value of this proposal; instead they underline the advisability of an international forum. The nuclear issue is only a part of the very complicated Korean problem. Any attempts to settle the problems of the Korean peninsula by force or to impose sanctions on North Korea would be absolutely counter-productive.