The problem of virtual modeling of historical processes in modern science

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the problem of virtual modeling of historical events and processes. It is noted that the modeling of social and historical processes began to be developed as a method for studying society only from the 70s-80s of the XX century. At the turn of the XX - XXI century, such an interdisciplinary direction as cliodynamics, devoted to the modeling of historical processes based on mathematical methods, appeared. The emergence of this scientific direction shows that the topic of modeling historical processes is based on the methodology of mathematical modeling. The article draws special attention to the virtualization of modern society as a factor in improving the modeling method. Computer technologies are becoming the main means, which greatly simplifies the modeling technology. Problems in creating a model of historical processes are noted, which is associated with a source study basis, the use of additional technologies, and it is also necessary to take into account the complexity, irreversibility, nonlinearity of the historical process itself. Also, as an example, ABM (agent-based models) are given, as an example of imitation and visualization of objects, phenomena. Among the individual characteristics of virtual modeling, the author identifies the ability to create a plausible imitation of an event, interactivity, information content, the ability to change / correct the intended nature of the process or the result of an event, unlimited time and space. This is the advantage of virtual modeling as a method of modern reconstruction of historical events, especially those that do not have accurate data, are debatable. Moreover, the article points out that this type of modeling has already embraced even those historical sciences that were more problematic in this regard (archeology, paleontology).