Modeling and identification of the Tunisian social system in 2011-2014: bifurcation, revolution, and controlled stabilization

Abstract

During the last three decades a mathematical theory of dynamical systems, chaos, and bifurcations has been actively developing and it is used in a range of fundamental problems and applications. The attempts of applying this theory to the study of economic, social, and historical processes were made by the well-known specialists in dynamics of natural sciences and specialists in various social sciences. Such concepts as controlled chaos, dynamical history, and synergetics emerged and were widely spread. The main dificulty of the mathematical modeling of social historical processes is to construct a suitable mathematical model. Therefore, in recent years a new trend arose: to drop the idea of constructing complete mathematical models and use, instead, basic concepts and common approaches of mathematical theory of dynamical systems to the socio-economic, historical or political process. In this paper an approach to modeling and identification of the Tunisian social system in 2011-2014 is considered and the revolution, bifurcation, and controlled stabilization are discussed.