The Polls: Attitudes Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict

Abstract

SINCE its inception, the state of Israel has been repeatedly at war with its Arab neighbor countries: in 1956, the Suez crisis and the Israeli occupation of the Sinai; in June 1967, the Six-Day War; in October 1973, the Yom Kippur War; and in 1982, the invasion of Lebanon by Israeli forces. In this issue of The Polls we present results of opinion surveys in the United States and in some Western European countries on sympathy for Israel and the Arab countries, on the Palestinians and the PLO, on arms supplies to the countries of the Middle East, and on recent developments in Lebanon. The question of support for Israel or for the Arab countries was frequently submitted to the public by Gallup from 1967 through 1982. The results of these surveys show an increase in American sympathy for Israel during and immediately after the 1967 and 1973 wars and after the withdrawal of the Israeli forces from the Sinai at the end of April 1982. The percentage of those sympathizing with Israel was fairly constant during the intermediate periods. The invasion of Lebanon on June 6, 1982 did not have the favorable effect on public opinion in the United States that earlier wars had elicited. There was hardly change in the results of opinion surveys into the sympathies expressed in favor of Israel and of the Arab countries. But some days after the massacres in the Palestinian camps of Sabra and Shatila (September 18-19, 1982), a Gallup poll conducted for Newsweek revealed a decline in the sympathies of the American people toward Israel: 32 percent were more sympathetic to Israel (vs. 49 percent in July 1981), and 28 percent were more sympathetic to the Arab nations (vs. 10 percent in July 1981). According to another Gallup survey, the favorable opinion on Israel appears to have declined even before the massacre in the Palestinian camps. In 1981, 75 percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of Israel, but by mid August 1982 this percentage had dropped to 56, lower than it had been during the preceding 20 years. In the countries of Western Europe, sympathies with Israel have been declining since about 1973, although not in favor of the Arab countries; rather, a preference for neutrality is being expressed. In West Germany, however, the opinion polls conducted by Demoskopie Allensbach did reveal a marked upswing in favor of Israel after the Yom Kippur War (October 1973). One of the major problems in the Middle East conflict is the question of what is to happen with the Palestinian people. Mediators in the conflict have not yet succeeded in working out a solution acceptable to both parties. The public, too, is finding it difficult to pronounce itself in favor of any of the possible choices offered in opinion polls. The percentage of don't knows often exceeds 30,