Abstract
Background: Despite the passage of eight months since the start of COVID-19 pandemic, it still represents a major public health problem at global, regional and national levels. Objective: To present comparative outcome indicators and time trends for the pandemic among countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and to discuss possible determinants behind such trends. Methods: We used data on all newly reported cases of COVID-19 infection from the start of the pandemic in each EMR country till the middle of August, 2020. Two sources of data were used: the World Health Organization Website (Corona World meters) and a private website reporting cases world countries. Numbers were directly abstracted from these sources and Excel programme functions were used to make graphic presentations. Results: As on August 5,2020 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region varied substantially in scale of the incidence rate per million population (from highest of 38939.1 in Qatar to lowest of 54.2 in Syria), the case fatality (closed case fatality ratio) ranged from Lowest of 0.2% in Qatar to the highest of 37.0% in Yemen. Cause-specific mortality rate ranged from 1.1 to 212.5 per million population in Jordan and Iran respectively. Testing policy was the main determinants of reported cases. None of the countries has reached a stage of clear exit based on scientific evidence despite the decline in the scale of cases in most countries. Conclusion: Most of The countries are experiencing a pattern of accelerated pandemic and are heading towards declining trend.
Highlights
Despite the passage of long time since the start of COVID-19 pandemic in the countries of Eastern Mediterranean Region[1,2] the outlook of the pandemic at global level still not clear yet
Countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) are among many countries in which the pandemic started as modest daily cases but most of these countries experienced escalation with time
Until now and after nearly six months of the start of case reporting in EMR countries, Iran has witnessed exponential increase very early in the course of the pandemic, some other countries are reporting substantial number of cases in recent weeks like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Iraq
Summary
Despite the passage of long time since the start of COVID-19 pandemic in the countries of Eastern Mediterranean Region[1,2] the outlook of the pandemic at global level still not clear yet. Methods: We used data on all newly reported cases of COVID-19 infection from the start of the pandemic in each EMR country till the 5th of August, 2020. Results: As on August 5,2020 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region varied substantially in scale of the incidence rate per million population (from highest of 38939.1 in Qatar to lowest of 54.2 in Syria), the case fatality (closed case fatality ratio) ranged from lowest of 0.2% in Qatar to the highest of 37.0% in Yemen. Reopening is a real challenge and careful scientific evidence based exit might be possible
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