COVID-19 in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: testing frequency, cumulative cases and mortality analysis.

Abstract

COVID-19 is now well documented in the Eastern Mediterranean Region; however, the incidence, mortality and fatality rates differ by country. The study aimed to describe the COVID-19 pandemic in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, assessing the incidence, mortality-related and fatality rate in different countries, in comparison with the worldwide mean. Data were sourced from the Worldometer surveillance page and from governmental reporting channels. Data were exported and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, version 23.0). In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, the testing frequency is heterogeneous between countries, in addition to the reported cases and death. Very few data are available from countries with political instability and security problems (Yemen, Syrian Arab Republic and Sudan), particularly for the testing frequency. Overall, despite similar rates of testing, there was a significantly lower incidence in the Eastern Mediterranean Region versus the rest of the world, in addition to a lower mortality per million-population, particularly in countries with low to moderate testing rates. However, in countries with higher testing than the world average, there is a higher incidence, a lower mortality, but an unexpected higher fatality rate. The overall testing frequency was similar in the Eastern Mediterranean Region compared to the rest of the world; this would be expected to lead to a similar cumulative incidence and case fatality rate. Nevertheless, the average incidence was 70% lower than the rest of the world, and mortality per million-population was lower (90%). Moreover, in Gulf Cooperation Council high-testing countries, a similar case-fatality rate to other countries in the Region was noted, but was higher than the world average, although expected to be lower. Further studies are necessary to explain discrepancies in incidence, mortality and fatality rates among countries; principally, environmental, genetic and managerial reasons should be investigated.