Abstract
First reported in China, the coronavirus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to 213 countries and territories around the world as of April 26, 2020. This study was designed to explore COVID-19 trends in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), with a particular focus on Pakistan. Daily reports and updates from the Ministry of National Health Services Regulations and Coordination COVID-19 Pakistan and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control were collected and study-specific data were extracted and analyzed. Our analysis revealed that, as of April 26, 2020, a total of 22 countries and territories in the EMR have reported COVID-19 cases. Iran had the highest number of cases (89,329) followed by Saudi Arabia (16,299), Pakistan (12,723), and the United Arab Emirates (9,813). Egypt (7.1%), Iran (6.3%), and Iraq (4.9%) had high case fatality rates; Lebanon (3.4%) and Pakistan (2.1%) had moderate case fatality rates; Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had low case fatality rates of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Iran (76.3%) and Iraq (69.4 %) had the highest recovery rate followed by Pakistan (22.5%), the United Arab Emirates (19.2%), and Saudi Arabia (13.6%). If the current trend continues, based on the susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) epidemiological model, we predict that EMR countries might experience a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases, resulting in as many as 2.12 million cases in Iran, 0.58 million in Saudi Arabia, and 0.51 million in Pakistan by June 20, 2020. Pakistan is the most populated country in the EMR and was the third most-affected country in terms of the number of cases with moderate case fatality and recovery rates. We predict that Pakistan’s weak healthcare system would not be able to sustain care if there is an explosive increase in the number of cases due to insufficient and inconsistent disease prevention and control policies. The best strategy for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic is to strictly follow recommendations based on epidemiological principles.
Highlights
Coronaviruses have previously been known for causing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV) in China in 2003 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia in 2012
The case fatality rate (CFR) and recovery rate were calculated using the following equations: a) Case fatality rate = x 100 b) Recovery rate = x 100
The analysis showed that Pakistan had 55 cases per million population on April 26, 2020, close to Iraq (42 cases/million) and Egypt (40 cases/million) but far from Saudi Arabia (468 cases/million), the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (938 cases/million), and Iran (1,064 cases/million)
Summary
Coronaviruses have previously been known for causing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV) in China in 2003 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia in 2012. The novel virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), termed SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2), is more contagious than SARS and MERS-CoV [1,2]. In the Americas region, the United States of America has the highest number of confirmed cases (899,281) with 46,204 deaths, followed by Brazil with 52,995 confirmed cases and 3,670 deaths. In the Eastern Mediterranean region, Iran has reported 89,328 confirmed cases and 5,650 deaths followed by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with 16,299 confirmed cases and 136 deaths. In the Western Pacific region, China has the highest number of confirmed cases (84,338) with 4,642 deaths, followed by Japan with 13,182 confirmed cases and 353 deaths. In the African region, South Africa has reported 4,361 confirmed cases with 88 deaths, and Algeria has reported 3,256 confirmed cases with 419 deaths [5]
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