The Norwegian report on population development

Abstract

The population committee was appointed in Norway in August 1981 and was assigned a 3-fold task with the following main points: to compile a survey of possible sociological economic psychological and/or other factors to which population development could be attributed; to discuss the social and economic consequences of a number of various possible developments in population size and composition in general and by district in the areas of education housing labor supply and demand health care and social work; and to consider whether it would be desirable or even possible for the government to actively influence population development. The recent development of the population both nationally and regionally is fully described in the report. Statistics are given for birthrate and birth surplus developments mortality rate development changes in regional population distribution changes in patterns of migration age distribution of the population and family distribution of the population. 3 development trends which have been identified as of great importance are: population growth declined from a 9.6% increase in the decade from 1951-60 to 8.2% the following decade and 5.2% during the 1970s; the reduction in population growth is due to a reduction in fertility; and there have been great changes in the age structure of the population since 1960. A section in the report provides a survey of possible explanations of the birthrate development. The discussion is based on a model which classifies the explanation variables into intermediate and basic variables. The committee commissioned population projections as a basis upon which to evaluate the consequences of future population development. The committee has not identified any of the population projections as the most probable but is of the opinion that the total birthrate will be well within the 2 extremes mentioned in the alternatives represented by the total birthrates of 2.1 and 1.33. A separate chapter contains a survey of some connections between population and other social relations. This survey serves as an introduction to the discussion of the consequences of population development. The committee discusses the consequences of population development in a chapter which is divided into the following topics: employment the labor market supply and demand; day care centers; education; the welfare health care and social service sector; the housing sector; and regional consequences. The report recommends courses of action.