The nature of agricultural imports in Iraq and their impact in economic growth during the period 1990-2022

Abstract

The research aims to determine the impact of agricultural imports and some other variables in economic growth, in which the values of agricultural imports X1, the foreign exchange rate X2, the inflation rate X3, and the population X4 were adopted as independent variables in order to measure their impact on the dependent variable of economic growth in Iraq Y. The standard model was estimated through testing the stability of the data series and for all variables and it was found that the variables have settled at the first level of the data and the first difference to them. Therefore the ARDL model was chosen to indicate the balanced relationship between imports and economic growth in the short and long term, and it was shown through the results of the research that there is a common long-term complementary relationship between economic growth and import components included in the standard model. The results confirmed that Iraq is one of the countries that have gone through difficult economic conditions and a state of political instability, turmoil, wars and economic blockade. Which caused a slowdown in its economic growth rates. The results of the unit root test showed that most of them are stable after taking the first difference, and the study found a joint integration and a long-term equilibrium relationship between the components of imports and economic growth. The results of the study showed that the impact of agricultural imports is significant and positive in economic growth. But their value indicates that the local market is not satisfied with the total agricultural products and this was consistent with economic theory and consistent with the objectives of the research. We recommend employing import revenues in a way that serves economic growth and reduce excessive imports of consumer and luxury goods. In order to be more positive in influencing economic growth, and facilitating import restrictions of raw materials and machinery to serve agricultural production capacities with attention to the agricultural sector and work to develop its production quantitatively and qualitatively and commensurate with the needs of the Iraqi economy. And research for other sources that contribute to increasing national income and thus raising the rate of economic growth.