The model of optimal enterprise maturity management in the conditions of noisy source data

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to propose a mathematical model of the optimal process for managing the organization›s maturity levels in the presence of interference in the source data. Changes in the organizational maturity of a company are described in terms of linear dynamic management systems. The proposed methodology for optimal management of the organization’s maturity level is demonstrated by the example of evaluating and forecasting the maturity level of one of the departments of a technical university. Baseline data is collected by assessing organizational maturity over several years. The paper uses the Kalman-Letov method of analytical design of optimal controllers, as well as a Kalman recursive filter that estimates the state vector of a dynamic system based on a number of incomplete and noisy data. The constructed model demonstrates plausible behavior in predicting the process of managing organizational maturity. The effect of accelerated growth of controlled indicators, identified as priority ones in the model, is reproduced. Using the Kalman filter allows you to create a control effect on the dynamics of organizational maturity indicators in such a way that the target values of maturity levels are achieved even in conditions significantly distorted when measuring the source data.