The MEDEE Approach: Analysis and Long-term Forecasting of Final Energy Demand of a Country

Abstract

This chapter discusses the MEDEE approach for the analysis and long-term forecasting of final energy demand of a country. In the MEDEE approach, a scenario is viewed as a consistent description of a possible long term development pattern of a country, characterized mainly in terms of the long-term direction of governmental, socioeconomic policy. MEDEE can be used to: (1) explore long-term energy demand resulting from various parts of society development and energy policy; (2) improve the understanding of energy demand development; and (3) assist national or regional decision makers dealing with energy problems in the process of planning. MEDEE can be used only to project the energy future within a time horizon and a set of events that allows one to describe consistently and plausibly the evolution of society. The scenario writing must be carried out after a careful analysis has been made of the long-term evolution of the social, economic, and technological system for which one wants to project energy demand.