National Energy Demand And Carbon Emission Forecast Under The “Carbon peak and Carbon neutrality” Target Based On System Dynamic

Abstract

Energy is a crucial material basis for economic development and social progress. It is also an essential factor affecting the human living environment. Under the target of “Carbon peak and Carbon neutrality,” the scientific and reasonable construction of energy models and forecasting energy demand and carbon emission can provide reference and basis for formulating energy policies. Based on the analysis of domestic energy supply and demand, this paper constructs a System Dynamics model of Chinese energy structure and carbon emission, uses Vensim PLE software for modeling and simulation to forecast the energy supply, demand, and carbon emission from 2020 to 2060, suggesting that the domestic energy structure is in transition, and vigorously developing clean energy is the inevitable choice to achieve the “Carbon peak and Carbon neutrality” target, which provides a reference for the government to formulate relevant policies.