Abstract
Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP) model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16%) followed by natural gas (36.57%), electricity (16.22%), coal (7.52%) and LPG (1.52%) in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.
Highlights
Developing countries around the globe are striving to ensure supplies of economical, sustainable and if possible cleaner form of energy for meeting their energy demand
In the subsequent parts of this paper an overview of energy system in Pakistan is provided in Section 2 including historical energy demand and supply in Pakistan, the power and energy demand forecasting efforts made in Pakistan, Economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan, description of methodological and theoretical framework in the Section 3, results and discussion in Sections 4 and 5 provides conclusion with s policy recommendation
The results obtained from the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model—which provided the most appropriate results for the energy demand—are analyzed
Summary
Developing countries around the globe are striving to ensure supplies of economical, sustainable and if possible cleaner form of energy for meeting their energy demand. Medium to long term energy demand forecasts are inevitable to catch up economic growth and social development based on realistic estimates [1]. It is extremely important for energy planning and management. Most of these forecasting model take into account variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), income, degree-days, population and energy price to estimate energy demand [2,5]
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